Smaller balance responsible parties often face imbalance costs that are difficult to predict. Long-term costs are unpleasant, but sudden weekend calls for liquidity can be even more disruptive.
Several changes contribute to the problem: growing retail solar generation, batteries, energy sharing, intraday price spreads and communication gaps between end customers, suppliers and balance responsible parties.
Why simple planning fails
A portfolio can no longer be planned reliably from a small number of standard assumptions. Customers may adjust battery charging themselves, renewable generation depends on weather and intraday prices can change the economics during the day.
A practical solution
Predicta combines portfolio data with external datasets and forecasting models. Backtesting comes first, followed by paper trading to demonstrate the potential result without financial risk. The customer can then decide based on a clear comparison of physical imbalance and total cost.
With three-hour recalculation, quarter-hourly positions and Wattflow automation, smaller parties can make their forecasts actionable and manage imbalance before it becomes an expensive surprise.
Who is Predicta?
Predicta is a three-person energy and technology company founded by Jiří Zábranský, Juraj Pálka and Tomáš Sedlák. The company brings together energy-market expertise, data engineering, software development and machine learning under one roof.
The service covers 15-minute forecasts by portfolio segment, day-ahead and intraday balancing positions, access to short-term energy markets and separate treatment of important consumption or generation points as portfolios evolve. Data is the foundation of the entire process.
The first steps with a potential client
The process starts with a balance responsible party or a party with transferred imbalance that is dissatisfied with its current costs. The portfolio and business are reviewed first. If both sides see potential value, an NDA establishes the framework for secure data exchange.
Backtesting and paper trading
Historical data is processed to model the day-ahead and intraday position together with the related imbalance costs. If the results make economic sense, the position moves into shadow trading: forecasting and balancing take place without live financial exposure.
This approach allows the client to assess the results without disrupting existing relationships or rushing into a new arrangement. A live cooperation decision can be made with a clear view of the expected benefit.
Results in practice
For one retail portfolio with annual generation and consumption of up to 20,000 MWh, the analysis identified savings in the mid-hundreds of CZK per MWh. The portfolio included consumption, generation, internal and external batteries, and energy sharing.
The resulting additional revenue from cooperation amounts to millions of Czech crowns per year. The service includes forecasts, day-ahead and intraday balancing positions and other complementary energy-market services.
Daily cooperation
Each morning, day-ahead forecasts are delivered and the position is traded after consultation with the client. Part of the purchase or sale may be left for the following day, when more precise intraday forecasts are available; this is especially useful for solar generation.
The refined position is traded again during the day, alongside the new day-ahead position. This cycle uses day-ahead and intraday auctions as well as the continuous intraday market.
Imbalance is continuously evaluated by segment and by metering point, revealing where the portfolio is under pressure in the short or long term. Clear visualisations support fast daily analysis, with further data and visualisation capabilities available for more advanced needs.
If this type of cooperation could be relevant to your portfolio, contact jiri.zabransky@predicta.cz.